DFS Picks for Week 6 Monday Night Football: Bills-Falcons & Commanders-Bears
When Michael Penix Jr., quarterback of Atlanta Falcons heads to Mercedes‑Benz Stadium on Monday night, DFS picks scramble to lock in his projected 225.5 passing yards. Across the doubleheader, the Buffalo Bills visit the Falcons while the Washington Commanders take on the Chicago Bears, and analysts are already flagging Josh Allen and Rome Odunze as high‑upside selections for DraftKings, FanDuel and PrizePicks contests. The games kick off Oct 14, 2024, and the lineups you file before the first snap could net the difference between a modest payday and a six‑figure payday, especially given the Bills’ 30.6 points‑allowed average and the Commanders’ porous secondary. Here’s why those matchups matter for your fantasy bankroll.
Home‑Field Edge: Penix’s Atlanta Advantage
Mike McClure, the DFS millionaire behind SportsLine’s weekly “NFL DFS Cheat Sheet,” says Penix has never looked more comfortable at home. “He’s been 298‑plus yards in three of his four career starts at Mercedes‑Benz Stadium,” McClure told the Oct 14 podcast. That’s a stark contrast to his road numbers, where he’s never topped 172 yards. The split matters because the Bills are expected to lean heavily on the passing game, forcing the Falcons to match volume. Penix’s ability to thread the ball downfield against a defense that ranks 12th in passing yards allowed makes him a prime pick on PrizePicks and FanDuel’s “over/under” props.
Bills vs. Falcons: DFS Opportunities and Defensive Angles
The Bills, led by Josh Allen, have been averaging 28.4 points per game while surrendering 30.6. Their high‑octane offense means the Falcons must stay in the game, likely inflating the passing attempts for both teams. DraftKings analysts note that wide receiver Drake London has a 12.3 target share in Buffalo’s passing attack, making him a solid “stack” with Allen. Meanwhile, the Falcons’ secondary, anchored by safety Jamal Adams, has allowed a 268‑yard completion average at home, providing a window for Penix’s deep routes.
Key stats to watch:
- Bills: 34.1 passing yards per attempt (5th best)
- Falcons: 12.5 average depth of target (ADOT) for Penix at home
- Over/Under for Bills‑Falcons total points: 49.5 (FanDuel)
Mike Petta, aka “hoop2410,” summed it up on his YouTube breakdown: “If you’re looking for that cheap stack, Allen + London is the way to go, but don’t ignore Penix’s upside when you’re playing the over on his passing yards.”
Commanders vs. Bears: Target Share and Deep Threats
The Commanders have yielded the tenth‑most passing yards per game, which translates into a soft spot for the Bears’ aerial assault. Rookie wideout Rome Odunze has captured 26.7% of Chicago’s targets this season, up from 19% as a rookie. His deep‑ball average sits at 12.5 yards, and he’s already tallying 41.5% of the Bears’ air yards. “Odunze is the guy you lock in on a ‘points per reception’ prop,” says Tyler Tamboline (“ToeTagginTambo”). The Commanders’ defensive backfield has struggled against routes beyond 10 yards, giving Odunze a clear lane.
On FanDuel, the “Odunze over 66.5 receiving yards” prop is trading at -120, indicating strong confidence from the market. Meanwhile, the Commanders’ quarterback Sam Howell has struggled to generate a consistent passing rhythm, posting a 6.2 DVOA (Defense‑adjusted Value Over Average) in the passing game.
Expert Lineup Recommendations Across Platforms
During a live “2‑Game Picks Strategy” session streamed Oct 13, Neil Orfield (known as “Showdown Shaman”) teamed up with Adam Scherer (“ShipMyMoney”) to craft budget‑friendly lineups. Their top‑tier suggestions:
- DraftKings: Josh Allen (QB), Drake London (WR), Michael Penix Jr. (QB), Rome Odunze (WR), Kendall Milton (RB)
- FanDuel: Josh Allen (QB), Rome Odunze (WR), Michael Penix Jr. (QB), Tyler Conklin (TE), James Cook (RB)
- PrizePicks: Over 225.5 passing yards – Michael Penix Jr.; Over 66.5 receiving yards – Rome Odunze
The trio emphasized stacking quarterbacks with their primary receivers to capture correlated points. “You want Allen and London on the same ticket, and Penix paired with any deep‑shot receiver like Darnell Mooney if you’re feeling aggressive,” Orfield noted.
How Odds, Injuries, and Weather Shape Your DFS Strategy
Betting lines have the Bills at -3.5 over the Falcons according to Fanatics, while the Commanders are -2.0 favorites at Soldier Field, but that venue isn’t a factor here – the game moves to the newly opened Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland. Weather forecasts predict clear skies and 68‑degree temps, eliminating wind concerns that could hamper deep passes.
Injuries: The Falcons are missing starting safety Kyle Fuller, opening the secondary further. The Bears have a fully healthy receiving corps, giving Odunze more room to operate. These variables tilt the value toward penalty‑free deep routes, especially on PrizePicks where you can isolate player props.
Bottom line: If you’re chasing a high ceiling, lock Penix at over 225.5 yards and Odunze at over 66.5 yards. For a more balanced ticket, pair Allen with London and add a mid‑tier running back like James Cook to anchor your roster.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Bills‑Falcons matchup affect DFS lineups?
The Bills’ high‑scoring offense forces the Falcons to stay in the game, inflating passing attempts for both teams. This boosts the value of quarterback props like Michael Penix Jr.’s over 225.5 yards and creates stacking opportunities with Josh Allen and his primary targets, especially Drake London.
Why is Rome Odunze a top pick for the Bears‑Commanders game?
Odunze now commands over a quarter of Chicago’s targets and averages 12.5 yards per route. The Commanders’ secondary ranks among the league’s worst against deep passes, making his over‑66.5‑yard receiving prop a strong upside play on FanDuel and PrizePicks.
What budget‑friendly lineup strategy can I use?
Focus on high‑volume players with low salaries: pair a low‑cost quarterback like Penix with his deep‑shot receiver, add a mid‑tier RB such as James Cook, and include a value WR like Drake London. Stack the QB‑WR combo to capture correlated points without blowing your salary cap.
Do weather conditions matter for these DFS picks?
The forecast calls for clear skies and mild temperatures at both Mercedes‑Benz Stadium and Northwest Stadium, so wind won’t limit deep routes. That steadiness reinforces the appeal of over‑under props for Penix’s passing yards and Odunze’s receiving yards.
When should I submit my DFS lineups?
All platforms close 5‑10 minutes before kickoff. To avoid last‑minute server lag, lock in your lineups at least 30 minutes prior, especially if you’re targeting player props that could shift as late‑breaking injury news rolls in.
